Do models ensure reliable results or rather, are results subject to uncertainty? What are the sources of uncertainty: choice of tools? Uncertainty and error inherent to the methodology? To the data? To calibration? To the skills of users? And above all, how to determine the range of uncertainty? What sensitivity studies are useful for model calibration and for determining the range of uncertainty?
Simulation
Multi-scale and multi-domain modeling
Uncertainty
Uncertainty of modeling to simulate future issues and their impacts (feasibility studies, business)
Quantification and ranking of sources of uncertainty, dependence of sensitivity of results upon relevant parameters
One group of stakeholders are users of the results of modeling: decision-makers such as elected representatives, NGOs, investors, governments, local and central, and in general, citizens. Another group are those who run the models themselves, e.g. engineers carrying out feasibility studies, businesses, water-related service and utilities managers. With the help of models, can all the stakeholders understand each other? Do they use hydroinformatics technology? Do they have the means to dialog directly or indirectly with the model developers? Do the developers and researchers on the one hand, and the stakeholders on the other, know each other well enough to exchange information and clearly express concerns about the limits and the potential of the models?
Engineering applications
Role of hydroinformatics:
Decision-making: impact studies, use of models and uncertainty in the results
Implementation and application, participation of stakeholders in construction works monitoring and follow-up: project conformance with original requirements and QA standards
Communication between players (technical, government, elected representatives, NGOs, etc.):
Role of models, power of prediction, uncertainty in results
Use of modeling results, engineering ethics
Stakeholder and modeler: relationship, understanding, confidence, communication of mutual points of view.
What is the state-of-the-art in research and development in the domain of numerical fluid mechanics? What numerical problems are only poorly solved or unsolved for more and more complex approaches such as 2D, 3D: the links between hydrodynamics, turbulent diffusion, transport phenomena? What is the state-of-the-art in multi-scale modeling and multi-physics modeling?
Coupling modeling and uncertainty
Sensitivity and stability studies by parameterized computation following an experimental protocol (brute-force or more sophisticated methods on unreliable input data).
Boundary-value problems, the existence of solutions.
| SimHydro2010.pdf | 439 Kb | 11 mai 2010 |



